There are hitters who make hard contact. And then there is Elly De La Cruz, who is currently doing it better than almost every player in the sport.
According to 2026 exit velocity data, De La Cruz is averaging 94.4 mph on contact — good enough for 3rd in all of MLB. That is not a fluke, and it is not a one-week sample trick. It is the kind of number that tells you a hitter is consistently squaring up the baseball with elite force, the type of contact that turns singles into doubles, doubles into triples, and mistakes into home runs.
For context, exit velocity at that level puts De La Cruz in the same elite tier as the most feared mashers in the league. When a player is making contact that hard on a regular basis, you do not need him to get lucky — you just need him to put the ball in play. The extra-base damage tends to follow naturally.
Now, the market we are targeting here is Over 1.5 total bases — which essentially asks for a double, a home run, or multiple singles in today’s game. That is not a high bar for a player who hits the ball this hard. A single and a walk does not get you there, sure, but one well-struck ball absolutely does, and De La Cruz is producing those with elite frequency this season.
The home run market is the bolder side of this play. With that exit velocity ranking, every at-bat carries legitimate power upside, especially if he gets a pitch he can drive. But the Over 1.5 total bases line is where the smarter value lives — it covers more outcomes while still being fueled by the same underlying contact quality that makes this prop interesting in the first place.
This is not a guarantee. Baseball is unpredictable, and even elite hitters go 0-for-4. But when the data tells you a player is hitting the ball harder than 97% of the league, you take that edge seriously and play it responsibly.
Where the value is
The exit velocity data on De La Cruz in 2026 points clearly in one direction — here is how we are playing it.
- The play: Elly De La Cruz — Over 1.5 Total Bases (alt: Home Run Yes) — today’s game
- Why: De La Cruz ranks 3rd in MLB in average exit velocity at 94.4 mph in 2026, signaling elite, consistent hard contact that generates extra-base power at a high rate
- Read: The total bases line is the value play — it captures the full scope of his power upside while requiring only one well-struck ball to cash
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