The $700 million figure didn’t come from Elly De La Cruz or his agent Scott Boras. It came from Joey Votto, live on NBC’s Sunday Night Baseball on August 31, and he backed it up with a straightforward argument: ‘La Cocoa’‘s 2026 numbers aren’t prospect numbers anymore — they’re the numbers of an elite shortstop in the best offensive season of his career.
With a .280 average, OPS+ of 114 and 4.5 WAR, the Dominican shortstop from Cincinnati is building the most expensive case in Reds franchise history.
What Votto Said — and What Elly Hasn’t
During the NBC broadcast at Wrigley Field, Votto didn’t dance around it when asked about De La Cruz’s contract future. He projected a 12-year, $700 million deal — roughly $58 million per season through 2042. His reasoning: De La Cruz will hit free agency in 2030 at just 28 years old, with elite range at shortstop and multiple seasons of 5-to-6 WAR already on his résumé.
The line that went viral was blunt about what that means for Cincinnati: «Unfortunately, we can’t afford him. He’s going to cost roughly the GDP of a small country.»
What the viral moment left out is that De La Cruz hasn’t asked for anything publicly. His agent is Scott Boras — the negotiator most famous for taking clients all the way to free agency before signing. In the spring of 2025, the Reds already put the largest extension in franchise history on the table — topping the 10-year, $225 million deal Votto himself signed in 2012 — and De La Cruz turned it down. He’s currently earning $800,000 under the team’s unilateral renewal, the de facto minimum for a player at his service level.
Why 2026 Changes the Conversation
De La Cruz enters this debate with the strongest possible argument: his season. His .280/.360/.492 line is the best complete offensive campaign of his career. The OPS+ of 114 means he’s hitting 14% better than the average MLB hitter, and his 4.5 WAR still has weeks left to grow. He needs just 0.7 more to surpass his personal best of 5.2, set in 2024.
That 2024 was already historic: De La Cruz became the youngest player in MLB history — in either league — to hit at least 20 home runs and steal at least 60 bases in the same season. Only four players had ever done it before him.
The 2025 narrative was one of regression: .264/.336/.440, 22 home runs and 37 stolen bases across 162 games. The 2026 narrative is the player who learned from that year and found another gear.
According to Statcast, his average exit velocity sits at 94.4 mph — 99th percentile in all of MLB. And the most telling number of this stretch run comes in September. Historically, De La Cruz has faded in the final month: .625 OPS in Sep/Oct 2023, .734 in 2024, .677 in 2025. Through his first five September games in 2026, he’s posting a 1.415 OPS. Small sample, sure — but it breaks the pattern exactly when it matters most.
Is $700 Million Realistic or Just Aspirational?
Only two players in MLB history have signed contracts worth $700 million or more: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. They’re also the only two to clear $500 million. The gap between what De La Cruz is doing today and what Ohtani or Soto were doing when they signed is real — outlets like Sports Illustrated and Yahoo Sports have noted it with data — but that conversation shifts if free agency arrives in 2030 and the market keeps growing.
The wild card nobody controls is the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. If MLB introduces a salary cap before 2030 — something ownership has pushed for in every recent negotiation — the market for that kind of contract changes dramatically. That’s the quiet risk behind the Boras strategy: hold out for maximum value in a market that may not exist in its current form.
For now, De La Cruz is under team control through 2029, and the Reds have four years to convince him to stay. GM Nick Krall has said the team remains open to negotiations. The problem is that the last record-setting offer was already rejected — and the season De La Cruz is having in 2026 is only going to raise the price.
The Numbers Behind the Argument
These are the Statcast figures from De La Cruz’s 2026 season that explain why he hits the ball the way he does:
- 556 plate appearances
- 23 home runs, 66 RBI
- AVG: .280 | OPS: .852
- xwOBA: .368 (what he should be hitting based on contact quality)
- Average exit velocity: 94.4 mph
- Barrel rate: 14.9%
- Hard-hit rate: 52.3% (balls hit 95+ mph)
- Average bat speed: 75.9 mph
How that stacks up across MLB:
- xwOBA: 93rd percentile — elite
- Bat speed: 91st percentile — elite
- Exit velocity: 99th percentile — elite
- Barrel %: 93rd percentile — elite
- Hard-hit %: 95th percentile — elite
- Sprint speed: 81st percentile
The Statcast radar doesn’t lie. And in baseball, it’s the numbers — not the opinions — that ultimately make the case.
