The current collective bargaining agreement dies at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, 2026. If there’s no new deal by then, owners are expected to lock the players out — and the 2027 season goes from a schedule to a question mark.
This page tracks the whole thing: the money, the deadlines, and the part almost nobody in the U.S. press is covering closely — what an international draft would do to the pipeline that put 247 internationally born players (26.1%) on 2026 Opening Day rosters, led by 93 from the Dominican Republic and 60 from Venezuela.
Last updated: August 5, 2026. Every figure below is dated. Proposals move week to week.
The short version
Owners want a hard salary cap. Players have called a cap a non-starter for fifty years. That’s the whole fight — everything else is negotiating around it.
- MLB’s proposal (May 28, 2026): a $245.3 million cap and a $171.2 million floor for 2027, plus a 50-50 revenue split and centralized sharing of all local revenue.
- The union’s proposal (May 27, 2026): no cap. Raise the luxury tax line from $244 million to $300 million, lift the minimum salary from $780,000 to $1.5 million, and add a «competitive integrity tax» aimed at teams that refuse to spend.
- Where that leaves the room: under MLB’s own numbers, nine teams currently sit above the proposed cap and twelve sit below the proposed floor. That’s 21 of 30 clubs who’d have to change how they operate.
Two proposals, one month apart, and they don’t overlap anywhere that matters.
The calendar that decides 2027
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| May 27–28, 2026 | Both sides table opening economic proposals. No common ground. |
| June 18, 2026 | MLB proposes cutting the domestic draft from 20 to 12 rounds and adding an international draft with a $200M bonus cap. |
| June 25, 2026 | MLB proposes contract-length limits — five years max for free agents who switch teams, six for players who re-sign. |
| July 21, 2026 | MLBPA counters on the draft: keep 20 rounds, keep high school eligibility, move the draft back to June. |
| December 1, 2026 | CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. ET. Lockout window opens. |
| Dec 2026 – Feb 2027 | If locked out: free agency and trades freeze. This is where the 2021–22 lockout sat for 99 days. |
| Mid-February 2027 | Spring training report dates. The real pressure point. |
| Late March 2027 | Opening Day. The deadline behind the deadline. |
What a lockout actually freezes
A lockout is not a strike. Owners initiate it, and it’s a shutdown of the business side, not the sport itself.
Stops immediately: free agency, trades, players using team facilities, any contact between players and team staff, and — as fans learned in 2021 — player photos disappearing from MLB.com.
Keeps going: the minor leagues, which are not covered by the MLBPA’s agreement. Also winter ball in the Caribbean, which is where this gets interesting for anyone following Latin American baseball.
The 2021–22 lockout ran 99 days, from December 2 to March 10, and cost the first week of the regular season before the schedule was restored in full.
The Latin America Desk
This is the part of the negotiation with the biggest long-term consequences and the least English-language coverage.
MLB’s June 18 proposal would replace the current international signing market with a 12-round draft covering 360 players from outside the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico. The bonus pool would be $200 million — roughly flat against the ~$208 million teams had available in 2026.
The changes that matter:
- Minimum age moves from 16 to 18. The current system lets clubs sign players at 16, with handshake deals reported for kids as young as 10 or 11.
- First draft would land between fall 2027 and early 2028.
- Undrafted players cap out at a $10,000 bonus plus a $30,000 graduation bonus, replacing a year-round open market that currently runs January 15 to December 15.
MLB’s argument is corruption: falsified documents, PED use in the academies, and loan sharks taking cuts reported as high as 20% of a signing bonus. The union’s position is that this is cost control wearing a reform costume — punish the teams making illegal early agreements and fund real investigations instead of capping the market.
Both things can be true at once. That’s why this one is hard.
Lockout Math
Numbers that explain the standoff faster than any statement does:
- $245.3M vs. $300M — the gap between MLB’s proposed cap and the union’s proposed tax threshold. About $55 million per club, per year.
- $780,000 → $1.5M — the minimum salary jump the union asked for. MLB countered with $1 million for players with two-plus years of service and $900,000 below that.
- $202M / $265M — the maximum a free agent could earn over five years with a new team, versus six years re-signing with his own, under MLB’s June 25 framework.
- 99 — days of the last lockout.
- 21 of 30 — clubs above the proposed cap or below the proposed floor.
- 247 — internationally born players on 2026 Opening Day rosters, 26.1% of the league. The international draft would rewrite how the next 247 get there.
Fan Survival Guide
Does a lockout cancel the season?
Not automatically. In 2021–22 the sides settled in March and played all 162. But 1994 ended with no World Series, so precedent cuts both ways.
Can I still watch baseball?
Yes. Minor league games, winter ball, college, and international leagues all fall outside the MLBPA agreement.
What happens to free agents?
Everything freezes. Unsigned players stay unsigned, and the market reopens the moment a deal is reached — usually in a chaotic rush.
Does it affect fantasy baseball?
Draft prep gets ugly. Rosters can’t move, so keeper and dynasty decisions get made without knowing where free agents land.
What we’re watching next
The next real signal is whether the union moves off «no cap under any circumstances» or MLB drops the cap in exchange for a floor and revenue-sharing changes. Nothing in the public record through late July 2026 suggests either side is close to that.
This page updates as proposals change.
