The San Diego Padres enter this offseason with everyone talking about money coming off the books. But there’s one number that reframes that whole conversation: $19 million in scheduled base salary raises that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. already have locked in for 2027 — committed before A.J. Preller makes a single move.
The Raises Nobody Factors In
The breakdown comes from Alvin Garcia of Yahoo Sports/Heavy, published November 5, and the math is straightforward. Machado goes from $21M to $35M in base salary for 2027 — a $14M jump baked into his 11-year, $350M extension. Tatis Jr. climbs from $20M to $25M, another $5M step up inside his 14-year, $340M deal. Add them together: $19M that the market tends to overlook when calculating how much room San Diego actually has.
Context matters here. According to Spotrac, the Padres’ projected 2027 active roster payroll sits at $267.7M — fifth-highest in MLB. Their cushion before the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, set at $247M that year, is just $31.27M in luxury tax space. Those $19M in raises from Machado and Tatis are already inside that number. They’re not an add-on on top — they’re eating into it.
A Rotation That’s Almost Entirely Gone
The financial crunch lands at the worst possible time. San Diego is heading into the winter with a rotation that’s essentially been wiped clean. Michael King declined his player option and is a free agent. So are Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito, and Griffin Canning — practically an entire starting staff hitting the open market at once, as MLB.com noted.
The holes don’t stop there. The outfield and first base also need addressing, with Miguel Andújar and Austin Hays both hitting free agency as well. Preller has a lot to rebuild, and his real working margin — after those $19M in committed raises — is narrower than the public debate suggests before the first negotiation even starts.
The fixed-salary anchors on the roster don’t soften that space either:
- Xander Bogaerts — $25.45M in 2027
- Joe Musgrove — $20M in 2027
- Yu Darvish — $15M in 2027
Three Different Numbers for the Same Player
It’s worth clarifying a distinction that gets blurred constantly. The $19M figure from Garcia’s analysis refers strictly to base salary. Machado’s total 2027 payroll value — including prorated bonuses — reaches $39.09M according to Spotrac, while his luxury tax figure is $31.8M. Three different numbers for the same player, and each one paints a different picture of just how tight San Diego’s situation really is.
Tatis Isn’t Going Anywhere
A rumor circulated that the Padres might consider trading Tatis to free up space. The response from the organization was blunt. Team sources cited by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune at the GM Meetings said it plainly: «We’re not trading Tatis.» The 28-year-old Venezuelan stays — contract, raise, and all.
Preller’s challenge this winter is more surgical than the public conversation implies. The real question isn’t how much money «falls off» the books when free agents walk. It’s how much is left net — after the committed raises, the fixed contracts, and the luxury tax ceiling. The $19M from Machado and Tatis is the clearest illustration of why that number is always tighter than it looks from the outside.
