For 17 straight starts, Paul Skenes allowed at least one earned run — the longest such streak of his career — and posted a 6.46 ERA over his last five outings. On Tuesday, August 25, 2026, at Petco Park, that stopped. Six innings, three hits, zero runs, zero walks, and a fastball that touched 98.6 mph. Pittsburgh won 1-0.
This isn’t a declaration that he’s back. But it is the first concrete technical sign that something changed.
What Happened Tuesday — and Why Velocity Is the Key
Skenes threw 87 pitches (55 strikes) and didn’t issue a single walk to San Diego. He threw 31 pitches at 97 mph or harder, his highest count in seven starts since the All-Star break. That matters because since July, Skenes had been carrying a 5.67 ERA with 21 walks in 46 innings — and command had never been his issue before this season.
The velocity drop was the most alarming indicator of his struggles. The Pirates organization had already trimmed his pitch counts and gave him extra rest the week before. The fastball bouncing back to 98.6 mph doesn’t mean the problem is solved, but it does mean his arm responded differently.
According to Statcast, Skenes averages 96.8 mph on his fastball in 2026, which ranks in the 85th percentile among all MLB pitchers. Tuesday, he cleared that comfortably.
A Real Crisis — With Real Context
Skenes entered the game 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA on the season — numbers that don’t scream disaster, but hide what’s happened since July. The 2025 NL Cy Young winner hadn’t thrown a scoreless outing since May 12th. Seventeen starts. Three and a half months of the same story: the most exciting young pitcher in baseball in free fall.
One split helps explain part of the puzzle: his ERA against the NL West in 2026 is 1.12 — five earned runs in 40.1 innings, six quality starts in six tries. Against every other division, that ERA jumps to 4.82. The Padres are an NL West team. That context doesn’t take anything away from Tuesday’s start, but it does temper just how close a full recovery might be.
The game also had its own sidebar: Oneil Cruz hit the first home run Mason Miller had allowed in 73 consecutive appearances — dating back to August 5, 2025 — to give Pittsburgh the 1-0 win. Miller is from Pittsburgh. Baseball writes its own scripts.
What’s Next for Skenes and the Pirates?
The Pirates (64-69) remain outside the NL Wild Card picture. This win doesn’t move them closer to October, but it gives the organization something it needed: evidence that their franchise pitcher can look like himself again. Manager Don Kelly had said they’d evaluate things start by start. Tuesday was the first one that gave the optimists something real to point to.
Skenes’ xERA in 2026 sits at 3.12 — the ERA he deserves based on quality of contact allowed. His actual ERA is 3.79. That gap says his arm has been better than the scoreboard suggests all season, and that the July-August collapse was real but doesn’t erase what kind of pitcher he is at his core.
One night doesn’t confirm anything. But 98.6 mph doesn’t lie, either.
