There are underdogs, and then there are underdog prices that make you lean forward in your chair. The St. Louis Cardinals sitting at +168 on the moneyline against the Chicago Cubs is one of those numbers. It doesn’t mean the Cardinals are the better team on paper tonight — it means the market is offering you a payout that could justify the risk if you believe an upset is in the cards (pun intended).
Let’s be real: Cubs vs. Cardinals is never just another game. This is one of baseball’s fiercest rivalries, and that alone means variance runs high. No lead feels safe, no starter feels untouchable, and momentum can flip faster than a double-play ball at Wrigley. That unpredictability is part of what makes a number like +168 worth examining rather than dismissing outright.
When you see a moneyline at +168, you’re looking at an implied probability of roughly 37% — meaning the market believes St. Louis wins about one out of every three times in this spot. The question El Apostador always asks: do we think the Cardinals actually win more often than that? If the answer is yes, even slightly, you’ve found value. And in a division rivalry where emotions, pitching matchups, and one bad inning can decide everything, 37% as a floor for St. Louis doesn’t feel crazy at all.
This isn’t about blindly backing the underdog because the number looks shiny. It’s about identifying spots where the implied probability undersells a team’s real chances — and right now, +168 on the Cardinals in a rivalry game is exactly that kind of conversation starter.
Of course, value doesn’t equal certainty. Upsets don’t happen because we want them to. But bankroll management, line shopping, and spotting these moments is what separates a thoughtful bettor from someone just picking favorites all season. A small, disciplined unit on St. Louis at this price? That’s a bet you won’t regret placing, even if it doesn’t cash — because the math was on your side when you made it.
Where the value is
A rivalry game, a juicy underdog number, and a Cardinals squad that never reads the script — here’s the breakdown:
- The play: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline +168
- Why: DraftKings (ref. Caliente) is pricing the Cardinals at +168 as underdogs against the Cubs — implying roughly a 37% win probability. In a high-variance rivalry matchup, that price represents potential overlay for bettors who believe St. Louis can pull the upset.
- Read: Underdog moneylines in divisional rivalry games carry extra variance, which can work in your favor at plus-money prices. A small unit is the disciplined approach here.
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Betting should always be fun and within your means. Set a budget, stick to it, and never chase losses. If gambling stops being entertainment, seek help at a responsible gaming resource in your region.
