deGrom's Worst Start in 9 Years: 8 ER vs. White Sox

Jacob deGrom lasted 3.2 innings, gave up 6 hits, issued 5 walks and walked off the mound with 8 earned runs on his ledger. It was only the third time in his twelve-year career that’s happened — and the first since 2017. Nine years without a start that bad, and then August 25, 2026 arrived to snap the streak against the Chicago White Sox.

Nothing in his stuff explained it

This isn’t a pitcher in decline. Through 25 starts this season, deGrom carries a 4.21 ERA — far from the Mets monster who used to punch out the world — but his contact metrics tell a different story. His xERA sits at 3.67, meaning the inflated ERA isn’t a product of how he’s pitching. It’s where the balls are landing.

The fastball is still the fastball: 97.3 mph average velocity, 2,465 rpm spin rate — 89th percentile in both categories across MLB. His whiff rate is 33.4% (95th percentile), and opposing hitters are batting just .234 against him. All of that was intact when he took the mound against Chicago.

Five walks in 3.2 innings — that was the problem

When deGrom is on, command isn’t his issue: he’s walked just 6.9% of batters faced this year (76th percentile). On this night he handed out 5 free passes in less than four innings. In baseball, free baserunners kill you — and five of them in 3.2 frames put enough men on base to do serious damage when they eventually crossed the plate.

There’s also a persistent vulnerability hiding in his profile. DeGrom’s average exit velocity allowed is 90.4 mph, and his hard-hit rate sits at just the 8th percentile in MLB — meaning hitters make solid contact against him more often than against most pitchers. On a night when walks piled up, that combination was explosive.

Outlier or warning sign? The numbers lean one way

Three times in twelve years with 8 or more earned runs. The sample size alone says this is the exception, not the norm. A pitcher racking up 159 strikeouts in 130.1 innings — a 29.4% strikeout rate, 90th percentile — isn’t losing his arm. A 95th-percentile whiff rate doesn’t belong to someone who’s cooked.

What does exist — and the percentile numbers confirm it — is a real tendency to allow hard contact when hitters do make contact. On a night where the walks stacked up too, that was enough to make history for all the wrong reasons. But one start doesn’t define a season, and deGrom’s track record suggests it could easily be another nine years before we see a night like this again.