Freddie Freeman walks into the 2026 postseason carrying a number that raises eyebrows: 1 home run in his last 66 regular-season games. This is the same man who hit the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history in 2024, then added another walk-off home run in 2025. Now he arrives in October with the longest power drought of his career, a knee that has him physically limited, and the biggest question of the Dodgers‘ three-peat chase hanging over his head.
One Home Run in Two and a Half Months
The number was flagged by @CodifyBaseball on October 3rd, one day before the playoffs opened, and the spray chart that came with it tells the story at a glance: a single home run dot in a 66-game stretch, sitting in left-center field. Visually striking. Statistically alarming.
To put it in scale: Freeman finished the regular season with 16 home runs in 153 games (579 at-bats). That means 15 of those 16 came in roughly the first 87 games of the year. The only one in the final stretch landed on September 2nd against the Cardinals — a three-run shot in the first inning that snapped a then-career-long 47-game homerless streak. After that, nothing. Freeman went the rest of the season without another one.
With 16 home runs in 2026, Freeman sets his lowest single-season total in a Dodgers uniform. His previous low with Los Angeles was 22, set in 2024. For a hitter of his caliber, a four-month power fade is not a blip — it’s a trend.
The Contact Is Fine. The Power Isn’t.
Before jumping to easy conclusions, the Statcast data adds important context. Freeman finished the season hitting .288/.362 with 70 RBI. He is not a broken player. His xwOBA of .363 — which measures true contact quality independent of results — ranks in the 91st percentile league-wide, elite territory. His xBA sits at the 98th percentile. By those measures, Freeman is still one of the best hitters on the planet.
The issue is specifically power. His average exit velocity is 89.5 mph, and his bat speed of 70.1 mph puts him in the 21st percentile — bottom quartile of MLB. The Dodgers as a team hit only 51 home runs from July onward, placing them in the bottom third of the league over that stretch. Freeman is not the only one affected, but he is the most visible case.
Statcast’s expected home run total for Freeman in 2026 is 15.9 — virtually identical to his actual 16. That matters: the drought was not bad luck or a hitter-unfriendly park. He hit with the power he had, and that power was simply less than in previous seasons.
Part of the explanation is the knee. According to an analysis published by Dodgers Digest on September 27th, Freeman arrived at the postseason physically limited, and that kind of restriction translates directly into less torque and less distance on contact.
There’s another layer the numbers expose: Freeman hit .253/.317/.364 with an OPS of .681 against left-handed pitchers in 2026, compared to .324/.397/.513 and an OPS of .909 against righties. That’s a 228-point OPS gap by handedness. In the playoffs, opponents have that information and they will use it.
The October Switch
Here’s where the story gets complicated for anyone ready to write Freeman off. His career postseason numbers through the 2025 season tell a different story: .264 AVG, 16 home runs, and an .853 OPS in 299 at-bats. That is not luck. That is a two-decade pattern of rising to the moment when the pressure is highest. Freeman in October has not been the same player as Freeman in August.
The question the 2026 postseason opens with is whether that still holds true — at 37 years old, with a compromised knee and a 66-game power drought in tow. The Dodgers need the answer to be yes. There is no three-peat without their best October hitter of the last two years actually showing up.
Freeman’s 2026 Numbers at a Glance
- Plate appearances: 657
- Home runs: 16 | RBI: 70
- AVG: .288 | OPS: .792
- xwOBA: .363 (91st percentile)
- Average exit velocity: 89.5 mph
- Barrel rate: 8.1%
- Hard-hit rate: 41.3%
- Bat speed: 70.1 mph (21st percentile)
- Sprint speed: 8th percentile
