Seven home runs in two starts. That’s what Gerrit Cole has allowed in his last pair of outings for the New York Yankees — a stretch that has the Bronx on edge right as September tightens its grip. The number is real and it stings, but the Statcast data tells a more complicated story than that of an ace simply falling apart.
The Historical Context That Puts It in Perspective
A stat shared by @Drianrogelio on September 13, 2026 puts the moment in sharp relief: Cole just joined the short list of Yankees pitchers who have surrendered 7 or more home runs within a two-start span. It’s not a long list, and that precedent inside the same pinstripes is what turns this stretch into something more than a rough weekend.
The Yankees are chasing October, and their highest-paid pitcher is at his most vulnerable point of the year.
Real Collapse or Bad-Luck Cluster?
This is where Statcast complicates the «Cole is broken» narrative. Across his 20 starts in 2026, Cole is allowing an average exit velocity of just 91.1 mph — the lower, the softer the contact — and his walk rate sits at the 97th percentile league-wide, placing him among the five most precise pitchers in baseball. His fastball is still sitting at 96.8 mph. None of that lines up with an arm falling off a cliff.
The problem that does line up is what happens when hitters make contact. Cole ranks at the 4th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 25th percentile in barrels avoided. In plain terms: when batters do connect, they connect hard. Over two starts, that can stack up to seven balls sailing over the fence in a hurry.
His xERA of 3.85 — the ERA his contact quality actually deserves — still grades him as an above-average big-league starter, not a pitcher in freefall. These home runs hurt because they piled up together, not necessarily because Cole is pitching worse than he was in July.
What This Means for the Yankees in September
The calendar doesn’t care. The Yankees need Cole to be the ace they signed, and allowing 7 home runs in a two-start window raises legitimate questions about how he arrives at a potential October. His 8-9 record in 2026 was already an uncomfortable conversation in the Bronx; this stretch only turns up the volume.
What the numbers say is that Cole isn’t broken — he’s being punished disproportionately by the contact he does allow. That can self-correct, or it can persist. His whiff rate of 21.6% (roughly 1 in 5 swings against him results in a swing-and-miss) suggests hitters are making better contact against him than in previous stretches, and that is a genuine red flag worth tracking as the pennant race heats up.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
Cole’s full 2026 Statcast profile from the mound:
- 20 starts, 115.1 innings pitched
- ERA: 3.67 · WHIP: 1.13
- 117 strikeouts vs. 22 walks (24.6% strikeout rate)
- xERA: 3.85
- Fastball: 96.8 mph avg, 2,322 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 21.6%
- Opponent batting average: .241
- Avg exit velocity allowed: 91.1 mph
- Barrel rate allowed: 8.9%
How he compares to the rest of MLB:
- Walk rate (BB%): 97th percentile — elite command
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- Soft contact allowed: 2nd percentile — among the very worst in MLB at avoiding hard contact
- Hard-hit rate allowed: 4th percentile — same story
