Jarren Duran is on the block. Boston arrived at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas open for business on their outfielder, and Boston Globe reporter Alex Speier confirmed on November 10 that there is already a «pretty good amount of interest» in Duran across the industry. Hard to blame anyone for looking.
From MVP contender to trade chip in two years
In 2024, Duran was an All-Star who finished eighth in AL MVP voting and piled up nearly 9.0 WAR. In 2026, across 151 games and 608 plate appearances, he hit .207/.266/.361 with a .627 OPS and just 0.4 bWAR, per Baseball-Reference — roughly the production you’d expect from a Triple-A callup filling an injury spot. Craig Breslow, Boston’s chief baseball officer, put it diplomatically to MassLive on November 10: «Jarren would be the first to say his 2026 season was disappointing from a performance standpoint, but we also know what he’s capable of.»
There’s still something to sell. Duran hit 20 home runs and stole 21 bases — his second career 20-20 season — which keeps his trade value from bottoming out entirely. But a .207 average and a .266 OBP are impossible to paper over, and any acquiring team is betting hard that 2026 was the floor, not the new baseline.
Why Boston is moving now
It’s not just about the numbers — it’s about the roster. With Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela already in the outfield mix, there’s no obvious starting spot for Duran in 2027. Paying him to sit doesn’t make financial sense either: MLB Trade Rumors projects his 2027 arbitration salary at ~$11.1 million, up from the $7.7 million he earned in 2026.
The non-tender deadline is November 20, but Boston has no intention of cutting him loose for nothing. The plan is to tender the contract and then deal him. The Red Sox control Duran through the 2028 season — two more arbitration years — which gives them real leverage. They’re not giving away a 30-year-old with an All-Star pedigree and back-to-back 20-20 seasons; they’re looking for the best return before the market cools.
Who’s in the running
- San Diego Padres — the most frequently cited destination. Both Jon Heyman and Sean McAdam independently confirmed San Diego’s interest.
- Kansas City Royals — prediction market platform Kalshi puts them as the second most likely landing spot at 18% (Boston retaining him sits at just 35%). Royals GM J.J. Piccolo has said publicly that Kansas City is open to including a starting pitcher in a deal for an outfielder, which fits Duran’s profile.
Speier summed it up on the 310 to Left podcast from Las Vegas on November 10: «I think the Red Sox are going to have an open mind, they’re having conversations, I’ve heard there’s a pretty good amount of interest across the industry.»
The market is alive. Now it’s just a question of who pays the price for one bad year on top of an elite track record.
