Max Scherzer didn’t say he’s retiring. He didn’t say he’s coming back either. What he said was something more honest: he wanted to pitch in Toronto with his family in the stands — just in case it was his last start. The decision about 2027 will come later, he said. But those two words in Toronto say everything about where one of his generation’s greatest pitchers stands right now.
The Toronto Start and What Scherzer Let Slip
The report came from Shi Davidi of the Toronto Star on September 26, 2026, as the Blue Jays wrapped up their season. Scherzer specifically wanted that Rogers Centre start because his family could be there — and because, deep down, he knew it might be the last time he took the mound in that park.
There was no formal announcement. No press conference, no statement. It was the kind of end-of-season conversation veteran players have when a career starts entering its final chapter. The difference with Scherzer is that he said it himself: just in case. Two words that carry a lot of weight.
At 42 years old, Scherzer made 17 starts in 2026 with the Blue Jays. It wasn’t his best season — not even close — but the story doesn’t begin or end with ERA.
What the ERA Doesn’t Tell You — and Statcast Does
The number that’ll dominate every Scherzer conversation is his 6.14 ERA. It’s ugly, no way around it. But there’s another number that completely reframes the picture: his xERA was 4.35 — the ERA Statcast says he deserved based on the quality of contact he allowed. That’s nearly a two-run gap, and it suggests Scherzer ran into bad luck with where balls landed, not that his arm has fallen off a cliff.
The most surprising detail from his Statcast profile: he allowed an average exit velocity of 87.4 mph, which puts him in the 78th percentile for soft contact allowed. In plain terms — hitters weren’t squaring him up in 2026. They were just squaring him up at the wrong times. Those are two very different problems.
What did fall — and this part is real — is his whiff rate. Only 20.4% of swings against him missed, landing him in the 11th percentile league-wide. Mad Max built his career on strikeouts. When that number drops, the whole equation shifts.
Still, context matters: his average fastball still clocked in at 92.4 mph at age 42. That’s not nothing.
So What Does Scherzer Decide?
The real question isn’t whether Scherzer can pitch — the data says there’s still something there. The question is whether he wants to, and on what terms.
Three Cy Young Awards. More than 3,300 career strikeouts. A fastball still sitting above 92 at 42. Scherzer has nothing left to prove to anyone. But pitchers like him rarely walk away because they can’t go anymore — they walk away when they decide it’s time. That decision, he said, will come when he’s ready.
For now, what he left behind is that image at Rogers Centre: family in the stands, one more time on the mound, just in case. If that turns out to be the last one, it was a goodbye that fit him perfectly — no announcement, no fanfare. Just a pitcher and his people.
The Numbers Behind the Season
- Starts: 17 | Innings: 77.2
- ERA: 6.14 | WHIP: 1.36
- xERA: 4.35
- Strikeouts: 61 | Walks: 34 (18.1% K rate)
- Avg. fastball: 92.4 mph, 2,354 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 20.4% (11th percentile, MLB)
- Avg. exit velocity allowed: 87.4 mph
- Barrel rate allowed: 8.8%
- Batting average against: .241
- Soft contact allowed: 78th percentile | Hard hit avoided: 83rd percentile
