The Dodgers closed their season with the news the baseball world needed: Shohei Ohtani will not have surgery this offseason, and the plan remains to have him pitching again in 2027. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said it plainly on October 21 at the team’s end-of-season press conference. The announcement came just days after the Brewers swept Los Angeles in four games in the NLCS — and with a question nobody in Dodgertown is ready to answer yet: can Ohtani’s body hold up through a full two-way season?
Whack-a-Mole: A Season Held Together With Tape
Friedman reached for a phrase Dodgers fans won’t forget quickly: Ohtani’s 2026 was «an unfortunate game of whack-a-mole.» When the left knee improved, the right biceps on his throwing arm flared up. When the biceps settled down, the knee started talking again. The result: his last start came on July 3, and he landed on the injured list on September 8.
What the doctors prescribed wasn’t a scalpel — it was time. Rest, no surgical intervention. Ohtani himself, speaking after the elimination, said he plans to return to the mound and is already thinking about his training program for next season. Friedman echoed that: «Surgery is not on the table» and «we expect him to pitch next year,» per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
What 85.2 Innings of 1.79 ERA Cost a 32-Year-Old Body
In the 14 starts he managed in 2026, Ohtani went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 85.2 innings. He struck out 27.9% of the batters he faced, and his fastball averaged 97.8 mph. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers — not the stats of someone who was going through the motions.
The problem is the cost. Since arriving in MLB in 2018, Ohtani has dealt with four significant injury episodes, including two elbow surgeries. In 2024 — his first year with the Dodgers, coming off his second Tommy John — he only hit, yet won the NL MVP unanimously and became the first player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in the same season. In 2025 he returned to the mound and was named NLCS MVP. In 2026 he came in whole and broke down halfway through.
At the plate, the second half weighed on him too. He finished the regular season hitting .275/.377/.889 with 30 home runs and 81 RBI in 135 games. He had slugged 54 and 55 home runs in 2024 and 2025 respectively; the 30 this year are his worst mark since joining Los Angeles. In the postseason it got harder: .192 AVG with a .631 OPS in 26 plate appearances. His body sent him the bill at exactly the wrong moment.
He turns 33 in July 2027. The 10-year, $700 million contract he signed with the Dodgers in December 2023 — the largest in professional sports history at the time — still has eight seasons left on it. The Dodgers don’t have a Plan B. They need this to work.
The Numbers Behind Both Sides
At the plate (2026):
- 618 plate appearances
- 30 home runs, 81 RBI
- .275 AVG / .377 OBP / .889 OPS
- xwOBA: .397 (98th percentile — elite)
- Exit velocity: 93.3 mph (97th percentile — elite)
- Barrel rate: 16.4% (99th percentile — elite)
- Hard-hit rate: 52.1% (95th percentile — elite)
- Bat speed: 74.7 mph (80th percentile)
On the mound (2026):
- 14 starts, 85.2 innings, 8-2 record
- ERA: 1.79 · WHIP: 0.95
- 95 strikeouts, 26 walks (27.9% K rate, 83rd percentile)
- xERA: 2.74 (95th percentile — elite)
- Fastball: 97.8 mph avg, 2,459 rpm spin rate (93rd percentile — elite)
- Whiff rate: 30.4% (85th percentile)
- Opponent batting average: .180
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.4 mph
- Barrel rate allowed: 3.8% (95th percentile — elite)
The Statcast profile on both sides of the ball is unambiguous: when healthy, Ohtani is operating at an elite level in every meaningful category. The only question heading into 2027 is the one no spreadsheet can answer — whether his body will let him stay on the field long enough to show it.
