Shohei Ohtani ended his season with a question he couldn’t answer. Minutes after the Milwaukee Brewers swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS on October 15, 2026, the Japanese superstar said he «definitely» plans to pitch in 2027 — but he still doesn’t know whether he’ll need surgery on his left knee, his right biceps, or neither. That’s not a small detail: the Dodgers’ entire rotation plan for next year hinges on that answer.
The best half-season of his career, cut in half
Ohtani opened 2026 as the most dominant pitcher in baseball. In his first 14 starts, he went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA across 85.2 innings, striking out 95 batters. FanGraphs credited him with 2.9 WAR purely from his work on the mound — nearly three extra wins over a replacement-level pitcher in less than half a full season. He was striking out 27.9% of batters he faced, and opponents were hitting just .180 against him.
After July 3, he never came back to the rotation. Left knee inflammation knocked him out of the starting five. Then in September, right biceps inflammation put him on the 15-day IL. He kept playing as a designated hitter, but his bat went quiet too: from August 18 on, he hit .160/.284/.253 with a 58 wRC+ over 88 plate appearances — a steep drop from his full-season line of .275/.377 with an .889 OPS.
In Game 4 of the NLCS, he hit a three-run home run that snapped a 25-game homerless streak — the longest of his career. It wasn’t enough. The Brewers won 6-4 to complete the sweep, punching their ticket to their first World Series since 1982.
Two offseason scenarios, two very different Dodgers
The medical uncertainty around Ohtani leads to two concrete outcomes, each painting a very different picture for LA in 2027.
- No surgery needed: Ohtani targets Opening Day ready to pitch. The Dodgers get back the starter who posted the best ERA among regular starters in both leagues in the first half of 2026. With seven years remaining on his $700 million contract, a 32-year-old Ohtani still has a lot of baseball ahead of him.
- Surgery required — knee or biceps: The closest reference point is his own elbow surgery in September 2023 with the Angels, which kept him off the mound for all of 2024. In that scenario, the Dodgers would have to plan the early months — or possibly the entire first half — without their best starter, and with no confirmed return date.
Neither scenario has a clear answer yet. Ohtani said the decision will be made during the winter, once the team’s medical staff evaluates both injuries.
The numbers behind the two-way star
Statcast tracks Ohtani on both sides of the ball, and his 2026 profile is a reminder of just how singular he is.
At the plate (618 plate appearances):
- 30 home runs, 81 RBI
- .275 AVG / .889 OPS
- xwOBA: .397 — 98th percentile in MLB
- Exit velocity: 93.3 mph — 97th percentile
- Barrel rate: 16.4% — 99th percentile
- Hard-hit rate: 52.1% — 95th percentile
- Bat speed: 74.7 mph — 80th percentile
On the mound (14 starts, 85.2 innings):
- 1.79 ERA / 0.95 WHIP
- 95 strikeouts, 26 walks (27.9% K rate — 83rd percentile)
- xERA: 2.74 — 95th percentile
- Fastball: 97.8 mph average, 2,459 rpm spin rate — 93rd percentile velocity
- Whiff rate: 30.4% — 85th percentile
- Opponents’ exit velocity: 87.4 mph; barrel rate allowed: 3.8% — 95th percentile in barrels avoided
- Opponents’ batting average: .180
