Shohei Ohtani came off the IL on September 24th, but the numbers make it pretty clear he didn’t fully come back. Before the injury he was hitting .130 with a .494 OPS over 13 games. After returning, he went .241 with a .543 OPS in the final five games of the regular season. And now, through the first two games of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves, he’s 2-for-8 with a .500 OPS, no extra-base hits, and 20 straight games without a home run.
The Dodgers want to be the first team since the 1998–2000 Yankees to win three straight World Series titles. To do that, they need an Ohtani who, right now, simply isn’t showing up.
What Happened in September — and Why It Matters Now
On September 11th, the Dodgers placed Ohtani on the 15-day IL — backdated to September 8th — with inflammation in his right biceps. Because he’s a two-way player, he wasn’t eligible for the standard 10-day position-player IL, which pushed his earliest possible return to September 23rd. He was activated the following day.
The splits tell the story in two lines: .130 AVG and .494 OPS in the 13 games before hitting the IL; .241 and .543 in the seven games after. There’s improvement, sure — but a .543 OPS in October doesn’t scare anyone. For context, Ohtani posted a .953 OPS in the first half of 2026. His second half had already slipped to .772 before the biceps sent him to the bench.
In those five return games, he went 5-for-21 with one double, eight strikeouts, and one walk. With the Dodgers already locked in as the NL’s second seed, he was essentially getting live BP reps in uniform before the postseason began.
The Real Problem: 80 At-Bats Without a Home Run
Ohtani’s last home run came on August 18th at Coors Field. Heading into the NLDS, he’d gone 20 games and 80 at-bats without leaving the yard — and this is a man who finished the regular season with 30 home runs, a 16.4% barrel rate (99th percentile in MLB), and an average exit velocity of 93.3 mph.
Game 2 of the NLDS produced some troubling Statcast numbers beyond the box score: 11 swings on 19 pitches, just one hard-hit ball, seven whiffs, and a 53% chase rate on pitches outside the zone. His contact rate (whiff rate) already sits at the 11th percentile in MLB — among the worst in the league — and the playoffs are magnifying it.
The question the Dodgers’ camp is carefully avoiding out loud: is Ohtani healthy enough to actually be Ohtani at the plate, or is he just healthy enough to be in the lineup?
What the Dodgers Still Have If Ohtani Doesn’t Wake Up
The good news for LA is that the roster has the depth to absorb a limited version of Ohtani — at least for now. Prospect Josue De Paula, who covered the DH spot during the IL stint, put up 11 walks, 10 hits, and 5 extra-base hits in 42 plate appearances before being sent back to Triple-A when Ohtani returned. If Shohei doesn’t find his swing, that conversation is coming.
On the mound, Ohtani isn’t an option. His last start was July 3rd, and multiple sources confirm he will not pitch this postseason. What’s left of his 2026 pitching line — 1.79 ERA over 85.2 innings, 8-2 record, 0.95 WHIP, and a 2.74 xERA — stays frozen there. Only the hitter remains.
The NLDS is tied 1-1. The Dodgers have time for Ohtani to find himself — or to adjust if he doesn’t. But if the Braves keep attacking his contact zone (his average exit velocity this postseason is tracking well below his season mark of 93.3 mph), the three-peat window starts closing with a guy performing like the tenth-best hitter in the lineup, not the first.
Ohtani’s 2026 Numbers, by the Stats
At the plate (618 plate appearances):
- 30 home runs, 81 RBI
- .275 AVG / .889 OPS
- xwOBA: .397 (98th percentile)
- Exit velocity: 93.3 mph (97th percentile)
- Barrel rate: 16.4% (99th percentile)
- Hard-hit rate: 52.1% (95th percentile)
- Bat speed: 74.7 mph (80th percentile)
- Whiff rate: 11th percentile — one of the worst marks in MLB
On the mound (14 starts, 85.2 innings):
- ERA: 1.79 / WHIP: 0.95 / Record: 8-2
- xERA: 2.74 (95th percentile)
- 95 strikeouts, 26 walks (27.9% K rate)
- Fastball: 97.8 mph avg, 2,459 rpm spin rate (93rd percentile velocity)
- Whiff rate: 30.4% (85th percentile)
- Opponents hitting .180 against him
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.4 mph / Barrel rate allowed: 3.8% (95th percentile barrels avoided)
