The Los Angeles Dodgers open the 2026 NLCS on Sunday in Milwaukee with a problem nobody wants to say out loud: Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith, their two highest-profile stars, arrive at the championship series completely cold. Ohtani went 2-for-13 (.154 AVG) with four strikeouts against Atlanta in the NLDS. Smith was even worse — just 1 hit in 16 at-bats (.063 AVG, .125 OPS). Game 1 tips off this Sunday at American Family Field against a Milwaukee Brewers team that went 103-59, the best record in MLB in 2026. The question Dodgers fans would rather not ask is already hanging in the air.
The Numbers That Hurt
Over four games against the Braves, Ohtani and Smith combined to go 6-for-29, posting a combined OPS that would embarrass a backup catcher in the regular season. In the Game 4 clincher, Smith was part of a combined 0-for-15 stretch shared by Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and him. The Dodgers won anyway — which says something real about their depth — but it doesn’t make the NLCS problem disappear.
Smith’s slump has some medical context. He returned on September 1st from a hand fracture that kept him out nearly three months, and over the final month of the regular season he hit .290/.400/.548 — a clear sign his swing was back. Then the postseason arrived and Atlanta shut him down completely.
Ohtani’s situation is more complicated. He hasn’t hit a home run since August 18th. Biceps and left knee issues knocked him off the pitching rotation in July and turned him into a full-time DH. In September he posted a wRC+ of 72, meaning he produced 28% below the league-average hitter during the final stretch of the regular season — exactly when the best players are supposed to be heating up for October. Manager Dave Roberts already lowered the public expectations, asking for good at-bats rather than home runs, and went as far as dropping Ohtani to fifth in the lineup during NLDS Game 3. That’s a notable move from a manager who almost never throws his star under the bus.
The Ghost of the 2025 NLCS — and Why This Year Is Different
The comparison to 2025 is inevitable and also a trap. Last year, in this same series against Milwaukee, Ohtani was the MVP: three home runs in the series and six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in Game 4 to close out the sweep. It was one of the most complete October performances any Japanese player has ever delivered.
But the key difference is this: in 2025, Ohtani was healthy. In 2026, he’s carrying real injuries — not a cold stretch that one good swing fixes. Hitting coach Aaron Bates told Yahoo Sports the team is confident Ohtani will come alive against Milwaukee, and noted that he was taking extra work in batting practice at American Family Field on Saturday. Public confidence is part of the job. The numbers will have to do the talking on the field.
Milwaukee Isn’t Waiting Around
The Brewers didn’t win 103 games by accident. Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Game 1, and he’s one of the toughest arms the Dodgers have faced all season. Milwaukee has home-field advantage and the momentum. This isn’t a soft matchup.
What If the Dodgers Have to Win Without Them?
Here’s the uncomfortable question: Los Angeles already proved it can eliminate Atlanta while Ohtani and Smith went silent. The rotation, the bullpen, and lineup depth picked up the slack when the stars didn’t deliver. That’s encouraging. But a seven-game championship series against the best team in baseball is a different conversation entirely.
The math is simple enough: if Ohtani and Smith find their swings, the Dodgers become the hardest team in the playoffs to beat. If they don’t, Milwaukee has the roster, the ballpark, and the record to make this a real fight.
Will Smith’s 2026 Statcast Profile
- 276 plate appearances in 2026
- 10 home runs, 34 RBI
- AVG: .260 | OPS: .781
- xwOBA: .389 (expected production based on contact quality)
- Average exit velocity: 89.1 mph
- Barrel rate: 12.4%
- Hard-hit rate: 41.2% (batted balls at 95+ mph)
- Sprint speed: 42nd percentile
The underlying numbers say Smith is making quality contact when he connects. The postseason just hasn’t let him prove it yet. Sunday in Milwaukee is the next chance.
