Caesars set Milwaukee’s win total at 84.5 before the 2026 season — four games fewer than the Cubs, who were supposed to own the NL Central. What happened next makes Pat Murphy’s Manager of the Year case almost impossible to argue against.
The Brewers are 98-58, the best record in the majors. They clinched their fourth straight division title on September 15 in Pittsburgh, and with 11 games left on September 21, they needed just a 6-5 finish to reach 100 wins. That’s not outperforming expectations. That’s demolishing them.
The Number That Ends the Debate
The single biggest factor in Manager of the Year voting has always been exceeding preseason expectations. Milwaukee has done it back-to-back in a way no team in recent memory has. In 2025 they won 97 games — a franchise record at the time. In 2026 they’re going to top it. Both seasons came with a roster that absorbed significant injuries and leaned on unheralded rookies for long stretches.
The Brewers’ official account put it plainly on September 21: «Murph should be a 3x Manager of the Year.» Hard to disagree.
What a Third Award Would Mean
Murphy won the NL Manager of the Year in 2024 — the first in Brewers history — then repeated in 2025 with 141 points and 27 of 30 first-place votes. That made him only the third manager ever to win in back-to-back seasons, joining Bobby Cox (Braves, 2004–05) and Kevin Cash (Rays, 2020–21).
Nobody has ever won three in a row. Not Cox. Not Cash. Nobody.
Milwaukee’s faith in Murphy was already on the record: the contract he signed in February 2026 was worth $8.95 million guaranteed, with a club option through 2029. The September tweet just said out loud what the organization already believed.
The Only Counterargument — and Why It Doesn’t Hold
Over the summer, some betting markets briefly moved Don Kelly (Pirates) and Walt Weiss (Braves) ahead of Murphy in the odds, leaning on the idea that he’d already won twice and there was no novelty left. That narrative aged poorly. Pittsburgh and Atlanta both missed the postseason. Milwaukee clinched on September 15 — their eighth postseason appearance in the last nine seasons.
- «Novelty» is not an official BBWAA voting criterion.
- Even if it were, four straight division titles starting from an 84.5-win projection is its own kind of story.
- The competition simply didn’t hold up down the stretch.
The Brewers’ tweet is fan service, sure. But it’s also an accurate summary of what the numbers show. When the BBWAA votes in November, those numbers will do the talking.
