Pete Crow-Armstrong has 39 home runs and 32 stolen bases through September 4, 2026 — and that alone puts him in rare company. But with roughly 25 games left on the schedule, there’s an even bigger milestone within reach: the 40-40 Club, one of the most exclusive achievements in baseball history, with just six members in nearly 150 years of MLB.
The catch — if you can even call it that — is that the very thing making him a monster at the plate is working against his stolen base count. His power is so elite that he’s second in home runs across the entire National League, and the more he’s hitting bombs, the fewer situations arise where stealing a base makes sense.
The Hardest Club to Join in Baseball
Six players. That’s the entire membership of the 40-40 Club — 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same regular season. Jose Canseco started it in 1988 with the Oakland Athletics. Barry Bonds followed in 1996, then Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and Alfonso Soriano in 2006. After that, the club went dark for 17 years until Ronald Acuña Jr. blew the doors off in 2023 — finishing with 41 HR and 73 SB, essentially founding his own 40-70 club in the process. Then in 2024, Shohei Ohtani did it in just 126 games, the fastest ever, before finishing at 50 HR and 59 SB.
- Jose Canseco — 1988
- Barry Bonds — 1996
- Alex Rodriguez — 1998
- Alfonso Soriano — 2006
- Ronald Acuña Jr. — 2023
- Shohei Ohtani — 2024
Now Pete Crow-Armstrong has the window wide open. On paper, needing one homer and eight steals in 25 games is manageable. In practice, there’s real tension: power hitters tend to come up with runners on base or in situations where running isn’t worth the risk. Every home run PCA hits changes the board — a homer doesn’t create a stolen base opportunity, and at this point in the season, every at-bat carries extra weight.
Why 2026 Is Already Historic for the Cubs — With or Without 40-40
Even if Crow-Armstrong finishes at 39 HR, this season deserves its own chapter in Cubs history. His fWAR of 9.3 leads all position players in MLB — meaning he’s been worth nearly 10 wins above a replacement-level player. His Fielding Run Value of 24 and 22 Outs Above Average also lead the entire league on defense. And at the plate, a wRC+ of 160 — 60% more productive than the average MLB hitter — is topped only by Yordan Álvarez among all active players.
For the Cubs specifically, that 40th homer carries extra weight. If PCA gets there, he’d be the first left-handed hitter in franchise history to do it since Billy Williams in 1970. More than half a century of waiting.
His speed makes the stolen base count realistic, too: Statcast clocks his sprint speed at the 96th percentile across all of MLB — 29.5 mph — which means when he decides to run, he almost always makes it. The question is when to pull the trigger in this final stretch.
The Numbers Behind the Season
In 2025, PCA finished with 31 HR and 35 SB — becoming just the second player in Cubs history to reach 30-30, alongside Sammy Sosa. This year he’s surpassed that in every category:
- Plate appearances: 631
- Home runs: 39 | RBI: 93
- AVG: .280 | OBP: .375 | OPS: .946
- xwOBA: .368 (what his contact quality says he should be producing)
- Average exit velocity: 90.3 mph
- Barrel rate: 13.1%
- Hard-hit rate: 48.6%
- Bat speed: 74.9 mph
How he stacks up league-wide:
- xwOBA: 93rd percentile (elite)
- Bat speed: 83rd percentile
- Barrel %: 87th percentile
- Hard-hit %: 88th percentile
- Sprint speed: 96th percentile (elite)
The leap from one season to the next is exactly what happens when a first-round talent figures out he can do everything at once. The clock is running. At roughly one steal every three games needed to close the gap, the math is doable — but every home run he hits makes the puzzle a little harder to solve. The same greatness that has him in the NL MVP conversation is the only thing standing between him and one of baseball’s rarest honors.
