The Toronto Blue Jays are in. On Tuesday, Jon Heyman revealed on his podcast The Show — alongside Joel Sherman — that Toronto has formally joined the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, becoming the fourth confirmed team chasing the two-time Cy Young left-hander. The Mets, Dodgers, and Padres were already in the mix. Meetings are expected in California next week. And the real deadline is already on the calendar: December 1, 2026, when the current CBA expires.
Four Named, Two Mystery Teams, One Hard Deadline
Heyman confirmed at least six teams are involved in the pursuit of Skubal. Four have been identified — Mets, Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays — and two are still anonymous. He named the Mets as the probable favorites, while making clear that Toronto, Los Angeles, and San Diego are genuine contenders, not just window shoppers.
The urgency is real. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. on December 1, and a work stoppage is widely expected to follow. A league proposal from last June would cap new contracts signed during a lockout at five years and $202 million for players changing teams — which would dramatically shrink any deal Skubal signs after that date. Scott Boras’s office already has the green light to close before Thanksgiving.
Why Skubal Is Worth Every Dollar — and Then Some
The numbers back up every projection. Over the last three seasons (2024–2026), Skubal leads all MLB starters with 18 WAR (per FanGraphs), adding up to 43 wins, 546 innings, and a 2.42 ERA. In simple terms: he’s been worth 18 wins above a replacement-level starter over that stretch — more than anyone else in the game.
In 2026, at 29 years old and posting a 12-7 record, Skubal split the season between the Detroit Tigers — who traded him on August 2 — and the Dodgers, where he was sharp: a 2.61 ERA in 10 regular-season starts and a 2.45 ERA in two postseason outings before Los Angeles was eliminated in the NLCS. That wasn’t on him.
He closed the year with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158⅔ innings. The contract record to beat is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers in 2024. An ESPN survey of industry executives found the most common projection for Skubal falls between $351 million and $400 million, with the consensus landing at 8 years and $355 million ($44.6M AAV). These are projections, not formal offers — but they’re grounded in real market intelligence.
Why Toronto Makes Sense Here
The Blue Jays finished fifth in the AL East in 2026 and missed the playoffs, hurt in part by a rotation that dealt with injuries all season. Last winter they signed Dylan Cease to a 7-year, $210 million deal — the largest contract in franchise history. A Cease–Skubal tandem would give Toronto one of the hardest rotations to attack in the American League.
There are no guarantees they win the bidding. The Mets have the deepest pockets and the most obvious competitive appetite right now. But the fact that Toronto has formally entered California meetings signals they’re ready to play in the same price range as everyone else. With December 1 as a genuine hard stop, this market is going to move fast.
