Tarik Skubal is already wearing Dodger blue, but his heart is still in Detroit. The left-hander who won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025 — the first pitcher to do that in the AL since Pedro Martínez in 1999–2000 — told the Pardon My Take podcast that he’d love to return to the Tigers when he hits free agency this fall. The desire is real. The math, though, is brutal.
What Skubal Said and Why It Matters
The trade went down on August 2, 2026. Detroit sent Skubal to Los Angeles and received three prospects in return: outfielder Zyhir Hope (No. 25 on MLB Pipeline), pitcher River Ryan (No. 68), and pitcher Brady Smith. Skubal is finishing the season on a one-year, $32 million deal that expires in October — meaning he’ll hit the open market with zero restrictions.
On the podcast, Skubal wasn’t vague. This wasn’t a «we’ll see what happens» kind of answer. It was a direct, affectionate statement toward the franchise that developed him. That kind of public signal matters in free agency because it tells every other team that Detroit has a relationship edge — even if it doesn’t have a financial one.
Before the trade, insider Jon Heyman reported a gap of roughly $250 million between what Detroit was offering on an extension and what Skubal was expecting. That gap doesn’t close because he said something nice on a podcast.
The Flaherty Comparison Is Flattering but Misleading
Tigers fans have every right to dream — it’s happened before. In July 2024, Detroit traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the deadline. Flaherty helped LA win the World Series, then signed back with the Tigers in February 2025 for two years and $35 million. Perfect script.
The problem is that Flaherty signed for $35 million total. Skubal arrives in free agency with two consecutive Cy Youngs, a combined 2.30 ERA over his last two full seasons, and 13.0 WAR accumulated between 2024 and 2025 — meaning he was worth 13 wins above a replacement-level pitcher over that stretch. That profile doesn’t get paid $35 million. Analysts are projecting somewhere between $360 and $400 million on the open market. For context, the largest contract ever handed to a pitcher is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers. Skubal could top it.
Detroit is a mid-market franchise. Sitting across the table in Skubal’s free agency will be the Dodgers, the Mets, and the Yankees. That’s a different conversation entirely.
Three Things Have to Line Up for a Reunion to Happen
For Skubal to end up back in Detroit, three things need to happen simultaneously:
- Skubal has to accept a meaningful discount out of loyalty.
- The Tigers have to commit financially at a scale they’ve never attempted before.
- No large-market team can put an offer on the table that simply can’t be matched.
On the field in 2026, Skubal’s numbers remain elite: an average Exit Velocity of 86.9 mph against him, a 34.8% Hard Hit rate, and a .261 wOBA. Batters are hitting the ball soft and poorly. He’ll have no shortage of suitors come October.
The Tigers, for their part, are playing well — they won seven of their last eight games before the trade and are pushing for an AL Wild Card spot. If they make the postseason, the «successful rebuild» narrative could help persuade Skubal that Detroit has a real competitive future. But a narrative doesn’t pay the contract. Dollars do. And that’s exactly where the love story between Skubal and Detroit runs into arithmetic.
