Tarik Skubal has been a free agent for exactly one day, and the market is already in full panic mode. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on November 4 that there’s a «feeding frenzy» around the 29-year-old left-hander — a back-to-back Cy Young winner in 2024 and 2025 — and that he could sign before a potential December 1 lockout freezes everything solid. The Mets and Dodgers are the primary bidders, and the clock is very much running.
Why Everyone Is Rushing
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, 2026. If owners impose a lockout — as they did in 2021 — all negotiations go on ice until a new deal is reached. That turns every day in November into gold for free agents and their representatives. Scott Boras, who represents Skubal, knows that calendar better than anyone.
The urgency isn’t just on the teams’ side. Heyman reported that Skubal «may sign quickly,» partly because one of the changes owners are pushing for in the next CBA is a salary cap. Getting a deal done before December 1 would lock Skubal in under the current rules. The incentive is mutual.
There’s another detail that makes this market even more wide open: Skubal carries no draft pick compensation. He was traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Dodgers at the 2026 trade deadline, which removes him from Qualifying Offer territory. Any team can pursue him without giving up a draft pick.
Mets vs. Dodgers — and the Teams Lurking on the Outside
ESPN identified the Mets and Dodgers as the primary bidders — the two teams most committed to the chase. The Cubs are in the conversation but reportedly have internal doubts about whether they can compete financially. The Padres are the wild card.
The Mets’ case is the most compelling. Owner Steve Cohen has no problem spending — though team president David Stearns has historically been cautious with long-term pitching contracts. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo points to New York as the favorite, citing their need for a true front-of-the-rotation starter and Cohen’s willingness to open the checkbook. The caveat: the Mets already have roughly $281 million committed for 2027, including Bo Bichette‘s opt-in.
The Dodgers, for their part, gave up three prospects to acquire Skubal at the deadline. They have plenty of motivation to not let him walk after betting on him to help them reach the postseason — even if the 2026 World Series ultimately went to the Milwaukee Brewers. The argument for retaining the pitcher they already paid to get carries real weight.
On contract projections: analysts at MLB Trade Rumors have floated a range of $350 to $425 million, which would make Skubal the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. These are analyst projections, not confirmed offers — worth keeping in mind before treating any number as gospel.
The Numbers Behind the Frenzy
Skubal’s stuff doesn’t just look good — Statcast measures just how different it is. Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in July 2023, he leads all qualified starters in fWAR (21.3), ERA (2.47) and FIP (2.42). His 2026 line alone:
- 26 starts, 158.2 innings
- ERA: 2.72 · WHIP: 0.96
- 186 strikeouts vs. 27 walks — he punches out 30% of batters faced
- xERA: 2.94 (expected ERA based on quality of contact allowed)
- Fastball: 96.8 mph avg., 2,288 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 31.7% of swings against him miss entirely
- Opponents hit .217 against him
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.1 mph — batters hit it soft
- Barrel rate allowed: 6.7%
Where He Ranks Across MLB
- xERA: 90th percentile (elite)
- Strikeout rate (K%): 91st percentile (elite)
- Walk rate (BB%): 99th percentile (elite)
- Whiff %: 90th percentile (elite)
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- xwOBA against: 90th percentile (elite)
- Soft contact allowed: 84th percentile
- Hard contact avoided: 77th percentile
The 99th-percentile walk rate alone tells you most of what you need to know. Skubal doesn’t beat himself. He’s as close to a sure thing as pitching gets — and the market is treating him exactly that way.
