Two basement-dwellers. Two teams that have spent most of 2024 collecting losses and lottery-pick odds. When the Washington Nationals host the Colorado Rockies, nobody is expecting a classic — but in a game between two struggling clubs, underdog prices can carry genuine value, and that’s exactly what we’re looking at here.
The Rockies are coming in as underdogs at +173 on the moneyline, a number that reflects Colorado’s overall struggles this season. And yes, the Rockies have had a rough year — no one here is pretending otherwise. But here’s the thing about matchups between two low-tier teams: the favorite’s edge isn’t always as clean as the price suggests.
Washington hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency at home, and when you’re laying juice on a Nationals team that also ranks near the bottom of the league in several offensive and pitching categories, you have to ask yourself: is that implied probability really justified? At +173, Colorado only needs to win roughly 37% of the time to break even on this play over a sample. In a division rival toss-up between two teams with losing records, that’s not an outrageous expectation.
The value play here isn’t about believing Colorado is a great team — they’re not, and we won’t insult your intelligence by saying so. It’s about recognizing when a price overreacts to narrative (Rockies bad, Nationals slightly less bad) and potentially undervalues what is essentially a coin-flip game dressed up with a hefty underdog tag.
In MLB betting, underdogs in the +150 to +180 range against fellow struggling teams are where some of the most exploitable value hides throughout a long season. The books know casual bettors tend to fade the Rockies on instinct. That instinct creates the gap — and the gap is where El Apostador lives.
One important note: this is a lean, not a lock. No play in baseball ever is. Treat it as a small-unit flier where the math works in your favor if you catch a few of these situations right over time.
Where the value is
Here’s a quick breakdown of tonight’s underdog lean before you head to the window:
- The play: Colorado Rockies Moneyline +173
- Why: At +173, Colorado implies roughly a 37% win probability — a realistic threshold in any matchup between two teams with losing records, where narrative often inflates the favorite’s price more than the on-field gap warrants.
- Read: This is a value lean based on price vs. probability, not a guaranteed outcome. Small unit only.
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Bet responsibly. Set a budget before you play and never wager more than you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, seek help.
