Scott Boras has a plan, and a work stoppage is his favorite weapon. According to Ken Rosenthal, the game’s most powerful agent is already working to land Tarik Skubal a massive long-term deal before any potential lockout kicks in — using the exact same move he pulled in 2021 with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. With a 2.72 ERA and 99th-percentile walk rate in 2026, the Tigers have a real problem: the most dominant pitcher they’ve had in decades is about to cost more than they may have budgeted for.
The Boras Playbook: The Lockout as a Clock
Boras has done this before and it worked. In the winter of 2021, he negotiated Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million deal with Texas and Marcus Semien’s 7-year, $175 million contract — also with Texas — right before the MLB lockout shut everything down. Once the work stoppage hit, the market froze. But those deals were already signed.
What Boras understood that teams were slow to see: a lockout creates artificial urgency. Owners who wanted to upgrade their rosters couldn’t do a thing once the doors closed, so many of them agreed to pay up before that happened. The playbook in October 2026 is identical. If a new stoppage is on the horizon, Boras has an ace in a career-best season to shop around before the market goes cold. The Tigers will have to decide whether to pay now or risk watching the price go up — or watching Skubal sign somewhere else.
Why Skubal Is Worth Every Penny
This isn’t hype. Across 26 starts and 158.2 innings in 2026, Skubal put up numbers any rotation in baseball would want. His fastball averages 96.8 mph and generates a 31.7% whiff rate. Hitters are batting just .217 against him, with an average exit velocity of 87.1 mph — meaning even when they make contact, they’re hitting it soft.
The Statcast profile backs it all up:
- ERA: 2.72 | WHIP: 0.96 | xERA: 2.94
- Strikeouts: 186 | Walks: 27 (30% K-rate)
- Fastball: 96.8 mph, 2,288 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 31.7% | Barrel rate allowed: 6.7%
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.1 mph
And how he stacks up league-wide:
- xERA: 90th percentile
- Strikeout rate: 91st percentile
- Walk rate: 99th percentile
- Whiff rate: 90th percentile
- xwOBA against: 90th percentile
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- Soft contact allowed: 84th percentile
- Hard hit avoided: 77th percentile
When a pitcher lands in elite territory across that many categories simultaneously, you’re looking at one of the three or four best starters in the game. On the open market, that’s a nine-figure deal, no debate. The closest comparable to Skubal’s profile? Gerrit Cole, who signed a 9-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees in 2019 with a similarly dominant stretch. Boras was his agent too. The pattern repeats itself.
Detroit’s Decision
The Tigers have options, but none of them are comfortable. They can extend Skubal before any lockout arrives — at full market price, which Boras will make sure is enormous. They can wait and hope the stoppage never materializes. Or they can let him walk into free agency and risk losing him entirely.
What Boras does in these situations isn’t magic. It’s time pressure. Every day that passes without a signature is another day the franchise lives with uncertainty. And when a lockout becomes a real possibility on the horizon, that uncertainty turns into urgency fast.
With a pitcher posting a 2.72 ERA and 99th-percentile control over a full season, Detroit has very little room to bet that the price is going to come down. The real question isn’t whether Skubal is going to get a massive contract. The question is whether he’s going to get it wearing a Tigers uniform.
