The New York Mets will meet with Tarik Skubal next week, according to Jon Heyman. The Detroit lefty is holding a series of meetings in California as he weighs his free-agent options — and he’s walking into those rooms with a 2.72 ERA, a 99th-percentile walk rate, and the best numbers of his career. The winter pitching market just got very interesting.
Why the Mets Are Moving Fast
The report comes from Jon Heyman, one of the most reliable voices on MLB transactions. Skubal is organizing his California meetings and the Mets made sure they were on the calendar early. That alone tells you something: New York has no intention of arriving late to this one.
The Mets have gone hard in the pitching market two winters in a row, and this offseason is no different. Their rotation needs a true front-line anchor, and Skubal — a 29-year-old lefty with a fastball that averages 96.8 mph — is exactly the profile contenders chase when October is the goal. The question isn’t whether there will be an offer. The question is how much they’re willing to put on the table.
What Separates Skubal From Every Other Arm Available
Every free-agent class has pitchers with one flashy number. Skubal has all of them at once, and that’s what puts him in a class of his own this winter.
His command is, without exaggeration, historically rare for a pitcher who also misses this many bats. In 2026 he threw 158.2 innings and issued just 27 walks — a 4.4% walk rate that ranks in the 99th percentile league-wide. There is almost no starting pitcher in MLB who gives away fewer free passes relative to his innings. And he’s doing it while striking out 30% of batters faced (91st percentile). Missing bats and throwing strikes is the hardest combination to find in an elite starter, and Skubal does both.
The other number that matters: his xERA was 2.94. Adjusted for the quality of contact he allowed, his true effectiveness sat right there, locked in step with his official 2.72 ERA. No fluky good luck. He was just that good.
The Numbers Behind the Ace
- 26 starts, 158.2 innings in 2026
- ERA: 2.72 · WHIP: 0.96
- 186 strikeouts vs. 27 walks (30% K rate, 4.4% BB rate)
- xERA: 2.94
- Fastball: 96.8 mph avg, 2,288 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 31.7% of swings miss entirely
- Batting average against: .217
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.1 mph
- Barrel rate allowed: 6.7%
How He Stacks Up Across MLB
- xERA: 90th percentile
- Strikeout rate (K%): 91st percentile
- Walk rate (BB%): 99th percentile
- Whiff rate: 90th percentile
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- xwOBA against: 90th percentile
- Soft contact induced: 84th percentile
- Hard contact avoided: 77th percentile
