When your season is on the line, you give the ball to your best pitcher. Milwaukee is doing exactly that: Jacob Misiorowski is confirmed as the Game 5 starter, and the numbers behind that decision are hard to argue with.
Why This Makes Sense
This isn’t a gut-feel move. Misiorowski finished the 2026 regular season 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP — meaning opponents barely reached first base when he was on the mound. Over 174.2 innings, he racked up 252 strikeouts against just 44 walks, punching out nearly six batters for every one he walked. That kind of command-to-stuff ratio is rare in any era of baseball.
Statcast adds another layer: opposing hitters make contact at just 87.2 mph exit velocity, well below the MLB average of 89–90 mph. In plain terms, the ball comes off the bat softer against Misiorowski than against almost anyone else in the league.
The Fastball Nobody Wants to See in October
Misiorowski’s primary weapon is a four-seamer that averages 99.7 mph with 2,625 RPM of spin — sitting at the 100th percentile in velocity and the 99th percentile in spin rate across all of MLB. That’s not just a hard fastball; that’s one of the most difficult pitches to pick up in the big leagues.
The results speak for themselves. His fastball generates a 37.3% whiff rate — more than one in every three swings misses entirely. Opponents are hitting .157 against him this season, and his xwOBA allowed is .226, meaning even after accounting for luck, hitters simply shouldn’t be doing damage against him.
The one metric that falls outside the elite tier is his curveball spin rate, which ranks at the 6th percentile. But when your fastball already has hitters in survival mode from the first pitch, the curve is almost a bonus.
Misiorowski’s 2026 Numbers at a Glance
- Record: 16-5 | Starts: 30 | Innings: 174.2
- ERA: 1.80 | WHIP: 0.80 | xERA: 2.13
- Strikeouts: 252 | Walks: 44 | K%: 37.9%
- Fastball avg: 99.7 mph | Spin: 2,625 RPM
- Whiff rate: 37.3% | Opponent AVG: .157
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.2 mph | Barrel rate allowed: 3.6%
- xwOBA allowed: .226
How He Stacks Up League-Wide
- xERA: 99th percentile
- Strikeout rate (K%): 100th percentile
- Walk rate (BB%): 81st percentile
- Whiff rate: 99th percentile
- Fastball velocity: 100th percentile
- Fastball spin: 99th percentile
- xwOBA allowed: 99th percentile
- Soft contact allowed: 83rd percentile
- Barrels avoided: 96th percentile
- Hard contact avoided: 86th percentile
Milwaukee isn’t hoping for a miracle in Game 5 — they’re sending out the guy who made the fewest mistakes all season. If the Brewers are going down, they’re going down with their ace on the hill.
