Twenty-one of 29 writers from The Athletic and ESPN picked the Milwaukee Brewers to advance in the 2026 NLCS. The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers got just 8 votes. The only problem? The sportsbooks clearly didn’t read the same survey — they opened the series with LA as -175 favorites.
The ‘Underdog’ Label Comes From the Media, Not the Market
Hard Rock Bet opened the series with the Dodgers at -175 and the Brewers at +145 — meaning a $175 bet on LA wins you $100. Sportsbooks build those lines with every available piece of information, including the one that weighs heaviest on Milwaukee in October: the Brewers have never beaten the Dodgers in a postseason series, going 0-for-4 across 2018, 2020, 2025, and now 2026.
The freshest reminder is 2025. LA swept Milwaukee 4-0 in the NLCS, outscored them 15-4, and Shohei Ohtani walked away as series MVP. The Brewers are motivated by that humiliation — but motivation doesn’t show up on the scoreboard. Numbers do.
Here’s a postseason figure the 21 experts who picked Milwaukee should have weighed more carefully: the Dodgers enter this NLCS with a 10-1 record in their last 11 road postseason games. American Family Field may be a home-field advantage on paper. In October, Los Angeles plays just as well away from Dodger Stadium.
Misiorowski vs. Skubal: The One Reason the Doubt Is Legitimate
All of that said, there is a real argument for putting Milwaukee on top — and his name is Jacob Misiorowski. The Game 1 starter finished the regular season 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts in 252 at-bats. He’s the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award. That’s not your average postseason ace.
Tarik Skubal answers for LA in Game 1: 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 186 strikeouts on the season. A very good pitcher — but there’s a clear level gap between the two Sunday starters, and that gap is what’s driving most of the expert consensus toward Milwaukee.
The thinking among those 21 writers probably goes something like this: if Misiorowski is sharp in Games 1 and 4 (or 5), the Brewers can force a long series where their 103 regular-season wins and their 4-3 head-to-head record against LA this year start to matter more. The Brewers proved they can match the Dodgers roster-for-roster over a full season. The question is whether that translates to October — and historically, it hasn’t.
Why Betting Against the Consensus Makes Sense
The cleanest argument for the Dodgers isn’t emotional — it’s structural. Both teams swept their Division Series opponents in four games (Milwaukee over San Diego, LA over Atlanta), so every pitcher enters Game 1 fully rested. That levels the playing field on the one thing that most favored the Brewers: getting Misiorowski on full rest with maximum impact.
Add to that: the Dodgers finished 100-62 with the best road record in MLB at 49-32. American Family Field is loud and tough — but Los Angeles has already shown it can win anywhere.
The combination of postseason pedigree, elite road performance, and sportsbook lines that never stopped favoring them makes the underdog narrative hard to sustain before Game 1 even starts.
Twenty-one experts could absolutely be right. Misiorowski can deal, Milwaukee can channel last year’s sweep as fuel, and the Brewers can finally flip the script on LA in October. But if the Dodgers hoist the NL pennant again, the sportsbooks won’t be surprised — because they never bought the underdog story in the first place.
