Shohei Ohtani sat out his third straight game for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, September 5 — the longest absence streak since he signed with the club before the 2024 season. The culprit isn’t one thing: a left knee issue, right biceps discomfort, and more recently neck pain have been stacking up since July. Manager Dave Roberts is no longer ruling out an IL stint, and if it happens before Sunday, Ohtani’s earliest possible return would be around September 18, leaving just nine regular-season games on the calendar.
How it unraveled
The thread started pulling on September 2. Ohtani went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts in an 8-6 extra-innings loss to the Cardinals. On his final at-bat of the night, he was visibly shaking his right arm in pain. Roberts texted him that same night to let him know he’d be out the next day.
But the trouble predates that game. Ohtani had been cold coming in: just 2-for-23 with 11 strikeouts over his previous 23 plate appearances. Roberts described his swings in St. Louis as «not his» and called the situation «the tip of the iceberg.» On Thursday, Roberts called an IL stint «unlikely but not impossible.» By Friday, he was «hopeful, but not confident.» The direction of that language matters as much as the words themselves.
Why the 15-day minimum changes everything
Here’s the wrinkle that makes this more complicated than a routine rest decision: because Ohtani is classified as a two-way player, any IL stint carries a minimum of 15 days — not the standard 10. Place him on the IL before Sunday, and you’re looking at September 18 as the best-case return date, with the Dodgers holding a 10-game lead in the NL West with 22 games to play.
That cushion is enormous. Los Angeles can absolutely afford to protect Ohtani through September and get him right for October. Dalton Rushing has handled designated hitter duties in his absence, and the real question was never whether the Dodgers can win without Ohtani — they can — but rather what condition their best weapon arrives in for the postseason.
Since his knee forced him off the mound on July 3, Ohtani hasn’t pitched again. His fastball was averaging 97.8 mph with a 1.79 ERA across 85.2 innings — that chapter is closed for 2026. What’s left to protect is the hitter: a guy with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity and a 15.8% barrel rate (96th percentile league-wide) who is far too valuable to send into October running on fumes. It would also mark the first time Ohtani has appeared on the IL as a Dodger. In 2024, even while recovering from UCL surgery, he played nearly every day as the DH. This would be a different story entirely.
Ohtani’s 2026 numbers, both ways
At the plate:
- 592 plate appearances in 2026
- 30 home runs, 80 RBI
- AVG: .279 | OPS: .906
- xwOBA: .401 (99th percentile)
- Average exit velocity: 93.2 mph (97th percentile)
- Barrel rate: 15.8% (96th percentile)
- Hard-hit rate: 51.7% (95th percentile)
- Average bat speed: 74.6 mph (79th percentile)
On the mound (before the July 3 injury):
- 14 starts, 85.2 innings pitched
- ERA: 1.79 | WHIP: 0.95 | xERA: 2.73 (94th percentile)
- 95 strikeouts, 26 walks (27.9% K rate, 85th percentile)
- Average fastball: 97.8 mph at 2,459 rpm (93rd percentile velocity)
- Whiff rate: 30.4% (85th percentile)
- Opponents batting average: .180
- Average exit velocity allowed: 87.4 mph | Barrel rate allowed: 3.8% (94th percentile barrels avoided)
The Dodgers built their October around Ohtani being Ohtani. The only decision left is how carefully they protect that investment over the next two weeks.
