The Los Angeles Dodgers were swept out of the postseason by the Milwaukee Brewers in four games, and when Shohei Ohtani stepped to the microphone on October 15, he left the most important question of the offseason hanging in the air: does he need surgery? He played the entire second half of 2026 with a compromised left knee and an inflamed right biceps, his last start came on July 3, and right now — neither he nor the Dodgers know exactly how deep the damage goes.
How Long Ohtani Pushed Through Before His Body Said Enough
Ohtani opened the 2026 season as a two-way player — pitcher and designated hitter — delivering on the promise of the most singular player in the modern game. But July 3 was his last time on the mound. After that, the left knee — the same one that required surgery in 2019 for a bipartite patella — simply wouldn’t hold up for pitching. The Dodgers gave him a Cortisone-alternative injection during the season to manage the pain, but by September there were no more patches left: he landed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 8, this time for right biceps inflammation.
In his 14 starts, Ohtani posted a 1.79 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, striking out 95 batters in 85.2 innings. While it lasted, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. His xERA of 2.74 confirms it wasn’t smoke and mirrors — it was real dominance. His fastball averaged 97.8 mph with 2,459 rpm of spin, and 30.4% of the swings he generated ended in strikeouts. The fact that he missed more than half the season as a starter makes those numbers sting even harder.
As a hitter, he stayed in the lineup. He finished with a .275/.377/.512 slash line, 30 home runs, and 81 RBI in 139 games — numbers that in any other context would earn a standing ovation. But the wear showed: from August 18 onward, he hit just .160 with a wRC+ of 58, roughly half the offensive production he’d put up the rest of the year. The injuries were collecting their toll swing by swing, and he kept showing up anyway.
‘Hard to Tell’: What Ohtani Said After the Brewers Closed It Out
In the postgame press conference after Game 4 of the NLCS — a 6-4 loss, series over — Ohtani addressed his physical condition through his interpreter. On whether he’ll need surgery this offseason, his answer was blunt in its uncertainty: «hard to tell at this point.»
That phrase says a lot. He didn’t say he wouldn’t need it. He didn’t say the doctors had already ruled it out. He said they don’t know yet. There are two separate pain sites — knee and biceps — and either one could require surgical intervention, or neither, or both. Offseason evaluations will determine the next step.
What he did confirm is his intention to pitch in 2027. For fans, that’s the good news buried inside a bad day: Ohtani isn’t thinking about retiring as a pitcher, isn’t considering becoming a hitter-only. He wants back on the mound — and the Dodgers need him there. The problem is that the road between that intention and an Opening Day 2027 start runs straight through either the operating room or the decision to avoid it.
What This Means for the Dodgers This Offseason
This isn’t the first time Ohtani has faced a major medical decision in the winter. After the 2023 season he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, costing him a full year on the mound. After the 2024 World Series he went back under the knife — this time for a torn labrum in his shoulder suffered while stealing a base. Both surgeries pushed his return to pitching back at least a full season.
The picture now is different, and it’s worth being precise: a knee or biceps procedure, if needed, does not carry the same recovery arc as an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. Assuming Ohtani will miss all of 2027 on the mound based on the 2023 precedent would be premature. But so would assuming everything will be ready by March.
The Dodgers finished 2026 without a title — swept in the NLCS — and the offseason opens with a medical question that directly shapes how they build their roster. If Ohtani can pitch from Opening Day, the plan looks one way. If he needs surgery and starts the year as a hitter only, it looks completely different. The evaluations in the coming days — and the decisions that follow — will set the tone for everything Los Angeles does this winter.
The Numbers Behind the Story
At the plate (2026):
- 618 plate appearances
- 30 home runs · 81 RBI
- AVG: .275 · OPS: .889
- xwOBA: .397 — 98th percentile in MLB
- Exit velocity: 93.3 mph avg — 97th percentile
- Barrel rate: 16.4% — 99th percentile
- Hard-hit rate: 52.1% — 95th percentile
- Bat speed: 74.7 mph avg — 80th percentile
- From August 18 onward: .160 AVG, wRC+ of 58
On the mound (2026):
- 14 starts · 85.2 innings
- ERA: 1.79 · WHIP: 0.95 — 95th percentile xERA
- 95 strikeouts, 26 walks (27.9% K rate — 83rd percentile)
- xERA: 2.74
- Fastball: 97.8 mph avg, 2,459 rpm — 93rd percentile velocity, 89th percentile spin
- Whiff rate: 30.4% — 85th percentile
- Opponents hit .180 against him
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.4 mph · Barrel rate allowed: 3.8% — 95th percentile barrels avoided
