The San Diego Padres enter the 2026-27 offseason with a pitching situation that looks more manageable on paper than it actually is. The narrative making the rounds online is straightforward: the Padres have four starters lined up for 2027 — Joe Musgrove, JP Sears, Randy Vásquez, and Yu Darvish. Check the contracts, the injury histories, and what GM A.J. Preller actually said this week, though, and that number drops fast. Out of four names, one is genuinely locked in.
Why the Count of Four Doesn’t Hold Up
Randy Vásquez is the only Padres starter who comes with zero asterisks. He posted a 3.87 ERA across 49 starts in 2024 and 2025, he’s under team control, and there are no medical questions hanging over him. He’s the real floor of this rotation.
Joe Musgrove is under contract through 2027 — he signed a five-year, $100 million deal before the 2023 season — but he hasn’t started a regular-season game since 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in October of that year and returned in the 2026 postseason exclusively as a reliever. When reporters asked Preller this week what role Musgrove would have next year, the GM said he doesn’t know. A starter whose own general manager can’t confirm he’ll start is not a lock.
Yu Darvish has two years left on his contract, but he didn’t throw a single regular-season inning in 2026 after undergoing internal brace surgery on his right elbow in October 2025. He’ll turn 41 years old in the summer of 2027, and according to multiple sources, he hasn’t decided whether he’ll attempt a comeback. Preller was equally noncommittal, saying Darvish is «still doing the work to give himself the option» — which is not a commitment to anything. He’s a wild card, not a certainty.
JP Sears finished 2026 in Triple-A and enters next year out of minor league options. That puts him on the 40-man roster by obligation, not by competitive merit. He could be part of the rotation — or he might not be.
The Name Missing From the Conversation — and the One Who Might Leave
The name that’s been left out of most offseason rotation discussions is Nick Pivetta. He returned from a right elbow flexor injury on September 7, 2026, and posted a 2.05 ERA across his starts after coming back, including the postseason. The Padres won all six of his outings after his return. His player option converted to a $14 million club option after he spent more than 130 days on the injured list, and most analysts consider it an easy call to pick it up given how well he finished. The catch: a flexor injury makes any decision a real medical risk going forward.
If Pivetta is in the mix, San Diego effectively has five names competing for four or five rotation spots: Vásquez, Pivetta, Sears, and the question marks of Musgrove and Darvish. That doesn’t solve everything, but it’s a different picture than the one circulating online.
The bigger problem has a name: Michael King. He made 32 starts in 2026, posted a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings with 159 strikeouts, and was flat-out dominant in the postseason — a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings. He signed a three-year, $75 million deal last offseason with an opt-out clause, and with those numbers he has every reason to test free agency. Spotrac projects he could land around $150 million over five years; Bleacher Report puts it at five years and $120 million. If King walks, the Padres lose their best starter and are left with the biggest rotation hole they’ve had in recent years.
What Preller Has to Do This Winter
Starting pitching is San Diego’s top priority this offseason, and no one in the organization is pretending otherwise. The free agent market includes names like Shota Imanaga, Trevor Rogers, and Freddy Peralta, along with highly anticipated Japanese prospect Hiromi Itoh. Keeping King — if it’s possible — should be the first conversation. Adding two external arms should be the second.
The Padres have built competitive rotations in creative ways almost every offseason since 2021, and Preller has a track record of moving quickly and smartly in this market. But the scale of the uncertainty heading into 2027 — Musgrove without a defined role, Darvish unconfirmed, Pivetta coming off a flexor injury, and King weighing his options — is unusually large even by San Diego standards.
A rotation isn’t built by putting four names on a piece of paper. It’s built with four healthy arms ready to take the ball on Opening Day. That’s still the work ahead for the Padres.
