MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand published his full map of Tarik Skubal suitors on October 21st — and Philadelphia showed up. Not as the frontrunner, but as the dark horse nobody saw coming. The left-hander finished 2026 with a 2.72 ERA and back-to-back Cy Young awards, and an ESPN survey of 27 industry insiders projects his next deal at 8 years / $355 million — which would shatter Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s record ($325M) and become the richest pitching contract in baseball history.
What Feinsand Said — and What He Didn’t
Feinsand listed six teams in the conversation: the Dodgers, Tigers, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays and Phillies. Los Angeles is the clear favorite — they acquired Skubal from Detroit on August 1st in exchange for three prospects — but getting swept by the Brewers in the NLCS leaves him walking into free agency. On Philadelphia, Feinsand pumped the brakes himself:
«Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about spending in free agency, so the Phillies are at least a dark-horse candidate to make a run at Skubal. Zack Wheeler has one year left on his deal, and given the depth of Philadelphia’s rotation, the club could trade Cristopher Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo to fill other needs if they added Skubal at the top of the staff.»
The operative word is «could.» This isn’t an announced plan — it’s a scenario Feinsand sketched to explain why Philadelphia isn’t completely out of the picture. That said, Dombrowski’s track record speaks for itself. He built playoff rosters in Boston and Detroit on the back of big-money commitments, and he has a pre-existing relationship with Scott Boras — Skubal’s agent — having closed deals with him before.
The Problem: Philadelphia Already Has Too Much Pitching
Here’s the paradox. The Phillies aren’t coming to this market with a hole in their rotation. Look at what they already have:
- Cristopher Sánchez: 18-7, 2.91 ERA in 207 innings in 2026
- Zack Wheeler: 3.00 ERA in 162 innings
- Jesús Luzardo: 2.87 ERA, 221 strikeouts — before a late-season shoulder issue
- Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter still in the mix
The scenario Feinsand lays out requires moving one of those arms — most likely Sánchez or Luzardo — to clear roster and payroll space, then committing somewhere between $325M and $400M to the pitcher coming in. This isn’t plugging a gap. It’s an all-in bet on owning the best rotation money can buy.
There’s another wrinkle: CBA uncertainty. The next collective bargaining agreement could include new payroll restrictions, meaning an eight-year deal signed this winter might get caught between today’s rules and tomorrow’s. That — more than the dollar figure itself — may be what stops Philadelphia before Boras even starts making calls.
Why Detroit Is Still the Most Likely Landing Spot
Skubal said it himself after the Dodgers were eliminated: he wants to go back to Detroit. The Tigers traded him in August as part of a rebuild, but that doesn’t close the door. Detroit’s new leadership has payroll flexibility and a compelling emotional argument — this is the city where Skubal became the best pitcher in the American League. The Dodgers, however, remain the real favorites. They already know what they have, they’ve integrated him into their system, and they have the payroll to absorb roughly $44.6 million per year — the average projection from ESPN’s 27-person industry survey.
Philadelphia was eliminated in the NL Wild Card Series by the Atlanta Braves. That doesn’t rule out a club with Dombrowski at the helm, but it does put the Phillies in reflection mode rather than attack mode heading into the offseason.
Skubal’s 2026 Numbers, by the Numbers
In case you need a reminder of what’s actually on the table:
- 26 starts, 158.2 innings
- ERA: 2.72 · WHIP: 0.96
- 186 strikeouts vs. 27 walks — he strikes out 30% of batters faced
- xERA: 2.94 (expected ERA based on contact quality allowed)
- Fastball: 96.8 mph avg, 2,288 rpm
- Whiff rate: 31.7% of swings against him miss entirely
- Batting average against: .217
- Exit velocity allowed: 87.1 mph (the lower, the softer they hit it)
- Barrel rate allowed: 6.7%
How that stacks up league-wide:
- xERA: 90th percentile
- Strikeout rate (K%): 91st percentile
- Walk rate (BB%): 99th percentile
- Whiff %: 90th percentile
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- xwOBA against: 90th percentile
- Soft contact allowed: 84th percentile
- Hard contact avoided: 77th percentile
Elite across the board. The question for Philadelphia isn’t whether Skubal is worth it — he clearly is. The question is whether a team with Sánchez, Wheeler and Luzardo already in the fold needs to blow past $350 million to get there.
