Tarik Skubal will hit the open market after 2026 carrying a 2.91 ERA, two consecutive Cy Young Awards, and a projected contract in the neighborhood of $280 million. According to analysts, only two teams are expected to make a serious run at him: the Los Angeles Dodgers, who already have him, and the New York Mets, who are limping through a 53-67 season without a manager. The hot-stove debate started in August, and the central question is more uncomfortable than the Mets’ record: will David Stearns tear up his own philosophy because Steve Cohen is furious?
The Best Arm on the Market, the Most Dysfunctional Team in the NL
The Mets fired manager Carlos Mendoza mid-season, sold off pieces at the August deadline, and sit at the bottom of the NL East. It’s the kind of year that forces a front office to either make a massive winter move or admit the project is broken. Former GM Jim Duquette told Heavy.com flatly that the Mets have to sign Skubal to climb out of the hole. Bob Nightengale of USA Today went even further, saying only two franchises will make real offers in free agency: the Dodgers and the Mets.
The problem is that Cohen’s logic — spend whatever it takes to fix it fast — runs directly into Stearns’. Since taking over as president of baseball operations in New York, the front office has been notably cautious about long-term deals for established starters. The one massive exception was Juan Soto — a hitter, not a pitcher.
Why Stearns Usually Doesn’t Go There — and Why This Time Might Be Different
Stearns’ philosophy has both precedent and logic behind it. The Mets lived through the Max Scherzer nightmare (signed in 2021 for $130 million, gone by 2023 with an injury) and the Justin Verlander disaster (signed in 2023, released before the contract ended). Two aces, two enormous contracts, two disappointments.
Committing $280 million to a 29-year-old pitcher with a history of elbow surgery isn’t an obvious call, even with Cohen’s checkbook. The arthroscopic elbow procedure Skubal underwent in 2026 — from which he returned healthy via a NanoNeedle procedure — is exactly the kind of red flag Stearns weighs before locking someone up for six years. It’s not that Skubal is broken; it’s that any contract of that length carries that history as a real risk.
That said, Bleacher Report already projects the deal at 6 years, $280 million, and Stearns knows better than anyone that the market doesn’t wait. If the Dodgers push to retain Skubal and the Mets enter the bidding, the price climbs. The question isn’t whether Cohen has the money — nobody debates that. The question is whether Stearns decides Skubal is worth breaking his own rule.
The Numbers Behind the Price Tag
Skubal’s stuff doesn’t just look elite — Statcast confirms it. His 2026 numbers on the mound:
- 20 starts, 120.2 innings pitched
- ERA: 2.91 · WHIP: 0.95
- 146 strikeouts vs. 21 walks (30.9% strikeout rate)
- xERA: 2.94 — his expected ERA based on contact quality allowed
- Fastball: 96.8 mph avg, 2,285 rpm spin rate
- Whiff rate: 32.3% of swings against him miss entirely
- Opponents hitting .212 against him
- Exit velocity allowed: 87 mph — hitters aren’t squaring him up
- Barrel rate allowed: 7.3%
How he stacks up across MLB by Statcast percentile:
- xERA: 90th percentile (elite)
- Strikeout rate (K%): 94th percentile (elite)
- Walk rate (BB%): 99th percentile (elite)
- Whiff %: 93rd percentile (elite)
- Fastball velocity: 85th percentile
- xwOBA against: 90th percentile (elite)
- Soft contact allowed: 85th percentile
The profile is undeniable. The debate isn’t about Skubal’s talent — it’s about whether the Mets’ front office is willing to bet $280 million on six more years of it.
